Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser doubled to left, Henderson scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Castellanos singled to center, Schwarber scored, Harper thrown out at home.2–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Mountcastle homered to center (451 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Stubbs scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Westburg homered to right (356 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–18 | Road vs home | 26–197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.