Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Pirates- Jiman ChoiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Choi doubled to right, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Schwarber homered to center (406 feet), Marsh scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 23–2623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.