Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper singled to center, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Sosa homered to right (352 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 7Hays singled to left, McCann scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Realmuto doubled to left, Stott scored and Bohm scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Castellanos singled to center, Cave scored, Sosa to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Cave doubled to left, Marsh scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 13–0
- 3Rutschman homered to left (396 feet), Mateo scored and McKenna scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 46%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −6 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–19 | Road vs home | 27–207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.