Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Palacios homered to right (367 feet), Triolo scored.4–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to right, Triolo scored, Palacios to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Reynolds singled to center, Joe scored on fielding error by center fielder Rojas, Reynolds to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Harper reached on infield single to first, Stubbs scored, Schwarber to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Reynolds homered to right center (418 feet), Joe scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Bohm homered to right center (396 feet), Harper scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 24–2723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.