Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Liover PegueroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas singled to left, Turner scored, Marsh to second.6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Schwarber walked, Realmuto scored, Marsh to second, Turner to third.5–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 45–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Williams singled to center, Rodríguez scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Rodríguez tripled to center, Reynolds scored, McCutchen scored and Davis scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Peguero singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Triolo to second.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Rodríguez doubled to right, Choi scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Cave doubled to center, Marsh scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Marsh doubled to center, Bohm scored, Realmuto scored and Stott scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Peguero homered to left center (412 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 23–2723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.