Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Segura homered to center (424 feet).6–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Cooper homered to left center (402 feet), Hampson scored.6–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 16–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7Carpenter singled to right, Báez scored and Rogers scored, Cabrera to third.6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6García singled to left, Berti scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Hampson hit a ground rule double, Fortes scored and Segura scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Fortes doubled to left, Gurriel scored, Segura to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Gurriel reached on infield single to first, García scored.4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Fair odds
- MIA -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +51 Elo | MIA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.