Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Avisail GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos homered to left center (401 feet), Harper scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 9Harper doubled to left, Cave scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3García doubled to right, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 33–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.