Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Seby ZavalaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BanksPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Zavala homered to left (372 feet).1–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 31–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 6Semien homered to left (348 feet), Taveras scored.0–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 5Jung homered to center (409 feet), García scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 2Jankowski doubled to left, García scored and Lowe scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Jung grounded out to third, Seager scored, García to second, Lowe to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Lowe singled to left, Semien scored, Seager to second.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Seager singled to left, Huff scored, Semien to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Seager homered to right center (394 feet), Semien scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +69 Elo | TEX 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–36 | Road vs home | 35–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.