Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garver singled to center, Jung scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Semien homered to left (411 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Garver homered to left center (457 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3García singled to left, Semien scored, Lowe to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2J. Smith doubled to left, Jung scored, Jankowski to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Sheets singled to left, Benintendi scored and Moncada scored, Grandal to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Grandal walked, Anderson scored, Moncada to second, Benintendi to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Fair odds
- TEX -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +95 Elo | TEX 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–37 | Road vs home | 36–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.