Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz homered to center (428 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Marsh singled to right, Castellanos scored and Stott scored, Realmuto to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Bell scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Realmuto homered to right center (391 feet), Castellanos scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −13 | PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 34–236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.