San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4
- Ross StriplingPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brown singled to right, A. Díaz scored, Gelof to second, Kemp thrown out at home.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pederson hit sacrifice fly to center, Estrada scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5J. Diaz homered to left center (402 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Fair odds
- SF -116
- OAK +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +14 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +47 Elo | SF 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–23 | Road vs home | 15–3930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.