Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pederson singled to right, Bailey scored, Crawford to second, Schmitt to third.3–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Bailey grounded out to pitcher, Conforto scored, Matos to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Turner homered to left (382 feet), Duran scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Duvall homered to left center (381 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Flores singled to right, Schmitt scored, Crawford to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Schmitt grounded into fielder's choice to third, Conforto scored, Sabol to second, Matos out at third.0–1
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 29–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.