Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Davis homered to left (387 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Turner reached on infield single to second, Yoshida scored and Duran scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Slater grounded out to second, Luciano scored, Schmitt to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Flores doubled to right, Slater scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +13 Elo | SF 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 28–2313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.