Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duvall homered to right center (391 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Turner doubled to left, Chang scored and Wong scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Casas homered to center (410 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Devers homered to right (404 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Albies homered to right center (393 feet), Harris II scored and Acuña Jr. scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +1 Elo | ATL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–16 | Road vs home | 29–2310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.