Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida homered to right (341 feet), Turner scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Chang singled to left, Casas scored, Wong to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Devers singled to left, Duran scored, Turner to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Duran singled to right, Chang scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Arroyo reached on infield single to third, Devers scored, Casas to second, Duvall to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Casas walked, Turner scored, Duvall to second, Devers to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 41–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Murphy singled to left, Albies scored, Olson to second, Riley to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -102
- BOS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: John Schreiber (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–15 | Road vs home | 28–2312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.