New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Yu ChangBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to center, Casas scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Baty reached on infield single to shortstop, Alonso scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Vogelbach homered to right center (409 feet), McNeil scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Nimmo homered to right (401 feet), Baty scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Chang doubled to left, Wong scored and Casas scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Turner grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -116
- NYM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 26–2212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.