New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching2.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers homered to right center (413 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Lindor singled to left, Mendick scored, Nimmo to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Wong scored on Smith wild pitch, Chang to second on wild pitch by Smith, Hernández to third on wild pitch by Smith.0–5
- 3Wong scored on Smith wild pitch, Chang to second on wild pitch by Smith, Hernández to third on wild pitch by Smith.0–5
- 3Chang singled to left, Casas scored, Hernández to second, Wong to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Casas singled to center, Duvall scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Duvall doubled to left, Turner scored, Devers thrown out at home.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Duvall singled to center, Turner scored, Devers to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–30 | Road vs home | 27–2313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.