New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to right, Vientos scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 9Vientos singled to left, Alvarez scored.5–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 9Alvarez singled to left, Alonso scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Turner homered to left (355 feet), Yoshida scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Yoshida singled to left, Duran scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Casas homered to center (428 feet), Devers scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Chang homered to left (369 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4McNeil singled to center, Lindor scored, Alonso scored, and McNeil scored on throwing error by catcher Alfaro.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Casas homered to right center (417 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Duran homered to right (348 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -115
- NYM +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +26 Elo | BOS 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 26–2317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.