Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Marte hit a ground rule double, Perdomo scored.4–3
- 11Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball 33–3
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Crawford scored on Ginkel wild pitch.3–3
- 10Crawford scored on Ginkel wild pitch.3–3
- 10Rivera singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Carroll scored, Walker to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Carroll singled to right, Marte scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Crawford hit sacrifice fly to left, Sabol scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Flores homered to left center (386 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Jakob Junis (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 30–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 4–3 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.