Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canzone singled to center, Carroll scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5C. Kelly singled to left, Thomas scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Canzone singled to center, Walker scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Walker doubled to center, Marte scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Murphy homered to left (398 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Suárez hit sacrifice fly to left, Wong scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Murphy hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +18 Elo | ARI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 27–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.