Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Josh WinderPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vázquez singled to right, Gallo scored.8–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 28–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 6Gallo doubled to right, Farmer scored.8–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 6Farmer singled to center, Larnach scored.8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 6Wallner homered to left center (426 feet).8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 6Suárez singled to right, Rodríguez scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Moore homered to left center (429 feet), France scored and Marlowe scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 4Wallner homered to right center (394 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Wong singled to right, Murphy scored, Moore to second, Marlowe to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Julien homered to left (370 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Vázquez homered to left center (395 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- SEA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −7 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 30–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.