Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor homered to left center (424 feet).9–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–6
- 9Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Crawford scored, Suárez to third.9–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 9Suárez doubled to left, Marlowe scored and Wong scored, Crawford to third.8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 8Rodríguez homered to right (368 feet), Raleigh scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 8Hernández grounded out to second, Suárez scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Raleigh doubled to left, Crawford scored, Suárez to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 6Solano hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Marlowe homered to left center (406 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Castro tripled to right, Kepler scored.1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- SEA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 30–227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.