Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Correa singled to right, Solano scored, Jeffers to second.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 9Kepler doubled to right, Kirilloff scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Wong homered to right (357 feet), Trammell scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Vázquez singled to right, Larnach scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Larnach tripled to right, Kepler scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Murphy homered to center (421 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- SEA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 29–229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.