St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas doubled to center, Canzone scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–6
- 9Walker homered to left center (391 feet), Carroll scored.11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 8Nootbaar singled to center, Donovan scored, Goldschmidt to second.11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Knizner homered to left (371 feet), DeJong scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8Gorman homered to center (432 feet), O'Neill scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Canzone grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carroll scored, Walker out at second.6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Goldschmidt homered to left (417 feet), Knizner scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Knizner singled to right, DeJong scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Rivera homered to left (386 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +27 Elo | ARI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 27–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.