St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4
- Steven MatzPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll tripled to right, McCarthy scored and Canzone scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8McCarthy singled to center, Marte scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Arenado struck out swinging, Donovan stole home, Goldschmidt stole second.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +44 Elo | ARI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–30 | Road vs home | 26–2520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–2 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.