St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill doubled to left, Donovan scored, Nootbaar scored and Goldschmidt scored.10–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 9Nootbaar walked, Contreras scored, Goldschmidt to second, Donovan to third.7–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 47–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Goldschmidt singled to left, DeJong scored, Donovan to second, Contreras to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Longoria doubled to center, Rivera scored and Walker scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Perdomo hit by pitch, Gurriel Jr. scored, Thomas to second, Rivera to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Walker homered to left center (417 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Arenado homered to left (391 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 4Motter singled to center, Walker scored, DeJong to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Carlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Nootbaar scored, Walker to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Thomas singled to left, Rivera scored.2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −40 | −2 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +73 Elo | ARI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 26–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.