Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4
- Tommy HenryPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Herrera scored on Brash wild pitch and Perdomo scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh.5–2
- 7Herrera scored on Brash wild pitch and Perdomo scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh.5–2
- 7Suárez singled to center, Caballero scored, Rodríguez to second.5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Murphy doubled to center, Hernández scored and Raleigh scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Raleigh doubled to left, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored, Hernández to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 27–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.