Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez singled to center, Crawford scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Crawford homered to right (389 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1France singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Ford to second, Hernández to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Ford walked, Crawford scored, Hernández to second, Rodríguez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- SEA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +17 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +19 Elo | ARI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 28–2722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.