Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to center, Heyward scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Freeman homered to right (371 feet).2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Soderstrom homered to right center (414 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Peralta singled to right, Rosario scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Rosario doubled to right, Betts scored on error and Smith scored on error, Rosario safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Laureano.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Smith singled to center, Barnes scored, Smith to second, Betts to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Gelof homered to left (364 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Rojas doubled to left, Muncy scored, Hernández to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Rojas doubled to left, Hernández scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Fair odds
- LAD -150
- OAK +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +126 Elo | LAD 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–40 | Road vs home | 33–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.