Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to center (392 feet), Soler scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Lowe doubled to left, Taveras scored, Semien to third.6–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 7Lowe doubled to center, Seager scored.6–8
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 36–8
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 26–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 16–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 6Fortes homered to center (426 feet).6–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5Jung homered to left (398 feet), García scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Seager homered to right center (392 feet), Semien scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Grossman homered to right center (414 feet), García scored and Jung scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Arraez doubled to left, Sánchez scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Wendle hit sacrifice fly to center, Berti scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Fair odds
- TEX -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | MIA: George Soriano (no track record yet) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +80 Elo | TEX 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 38–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.