Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Yuli GurrielBatting2-3
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8García homered to center (444 feet).0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Duran homered to center (423 feet).0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Semien homered to center (405 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Lowe homered to right center (387 feet), Semien scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Garver singled to left, García scored, Jung to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -121
- MIA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.8 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +63 Elo | TEX 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 39–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.