San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-5, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick AllenBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kemp hit sacrifice fly to right, Gelof scored, Brown to third.6–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 6Langeliers singled to left, J. Diaz scored and Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Soderstrom walked, Brown scored, J. Diaz to second, Rooker to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 46–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 5Allen homered to left (355 feet).6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Estrada reached on bunt single to third, Bailey scored, Wade Jr. to second.6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Wade Jr. singled to right, Conforto scored, Bailey to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Crawford grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Davis scored, Bailey out at second, Conforto to third.4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Bailey singled to left, Pederson scored, Conforto to second, Davis to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Allen homered to left (395 feet), Soderstrom scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Wade Jr. singled to center, Crawford scored, Matos to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Brown tripled to center, Gelof scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Davis singled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Pederson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 62%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +83 Elo | SF 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 6th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 16–3930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–1 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.