San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Brandon CrawfordBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moustakas homered to right (419 feet), Ohtani scored and Drury scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Drury singled to left, Rengifo scored, Drury to second, Ohtani to second, Ohtani safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Pederson.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Conforto scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- SF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +8 | SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +6 Elo | LAA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 30–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.