San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sabol singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Estrada singled to left, Mathias scored, Wade Jr. to second.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Mathias singled to center, Bailey scored and Conforto scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Bailey doubled to left, Davis scored and Sabol scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Rengifo singled to right, Grichuk scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Davis homered to center (431 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Moniak singled to center, Cron scored on fielding error by center fielder Matos, Moniak to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Cron singled to center, Ohtani scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Bailey singled to left, Flores scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- SF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +6 Elo | LAA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 29–2718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.