Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 10Suárez singled to left, France scored, Rodríguez thrown out at third.3–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Thaiss homered to right center (419 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Hernández homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Moustakas doubled to left, Ohtani scored, Drury to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Crawford homered to center (397 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- SEA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +13 Elo | LAA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 29–2618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 5–4 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.