Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II homered to center (427 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Arcia homered to center (420 feet), Rosario scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Harris II homered to right center (445 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Neto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Moniak scored, Grichuk out at second.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Albies scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- LAA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.1 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 35–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.