Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Bichette scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Renfroe homered to left (368 feet), Moustakas scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Merrifield singled to left, Varsho scored on error, Merrifield safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Moniak.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Renfroe hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 29–207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.