Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrifield homered to center (405 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Bichette doubled to left, Merrifield scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Jansen homered to left center (392 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Chapman homered to left center (411 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right (397 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- LAA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +35 Elo | TOR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 27–208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.