Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to center (431 feet), Albies scored.6–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 6Ozuna homered to left center (412 feet).6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored and Turang scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Yelich grounded out to first, Toro scored, Perkins to second, Turang to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Olson homered to right (361 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Santana homered to right (365 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Yelich homered to left (388 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Riley homered to center (463 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Yelich scored on Smith-Shawver wild pitch, Contreras safe at second on throwing error by catcher Murphy.1–0
- 1Yelich scored on Smith-Shawver wild pitch, Contreras safe at second on throwing error by catcher Murphy.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -122
- MIL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 34–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.