Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching5.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to left center (394 feet), Turang scored and Wiemer scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 8Wiemer singled to left, Caratini scored, Turang to third.2–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Ozuna homered to right (374 feet), d'Arnaud scored.1–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 5Ozuna homered to center (399 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to center (434 feet), Arcia scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 1Rosario homered to right (356 feet), Ozuna scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Ozuna doubled to center, Olson scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1d'Arnaud hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Olson singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -122
- MIL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3028–23 | Road vs home | 33–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.