Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Abraham ToroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Toro homered to right (363 feet), Frelick scored and Monasterio scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 7Rosario singled to left, Murphy scored and Ozuna scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Olson homered to right center (405 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Riley homered to left center (413 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Olson hit sacrifice fly to left, Albies scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (411 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Wiemer doubled to center, Frelick scored and Monasterio scored, Toro to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to right, Arcia scored, Harris II to third.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- MIL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −13 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +30 Elo | ATL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 32–193rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.