Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Chad WallachBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cron singled to center, Wallach scored, Rengifo to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Wallach homered to center (441 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Olson homered to right center (422 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Grichuk homered to right center (374 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Rengifo homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.3 – 5.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +76 Elo | ATL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 35–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.