Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rodríguez stole home, Suárez stole second.3–6
- 7Rodríguez stole home, Suárez stole second.3–6
- 7Suárez singled to right, Caballero scored, Rodríguez to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Rodríguez singled to left, Murphy scored, Caballero to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Marlowe singled to center, Canzone scored, Murphy to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Raleigh homered to right (362 feet), Suárez scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Yoshida reached on infield single to shortstop, Wong scored, Chang to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Duran homered to right (374 feet), Wong scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 30–2617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.