Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6France doubled to left, Canzone scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6McGuire homered to right (381 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Suárez homered to left (390 feet), Marlowe scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Verdugo homered to center (398 feet), Duran scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4McGuire hit sacrifice fly to center, Duvall scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Arroyo hit a ground rule double, Yoshida scored and Devers scored, Duvall to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Suárez singled to left, Crawford scored on error, Suárez safe at second, Rodríguez safe at third on error by left fielder Duran.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −12 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 30–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.