Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-4
- Nick PivettaPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner reached on infield single to third, Wong scored, Duran to third.2–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 21–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 11–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 8Hernández reached on infield single to pitcher, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second, Suárez to third.1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 8Suárez singled to left, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Rodríguez singled to right, Caballero scored and Marlowe scored, Crawford to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Raleigh homered to right (387 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Raleigh homered to right (366 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Duran steals second, advanced to third on throwing error by catcher Murphy, scored on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez.1–0
- 1Duran scored on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 29–2516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.