Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto hit a ground rule double, Escobar scored.5–12
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–12
- 8Albies doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 6d'Arnaud singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Harris II scored, Olson to second.4–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 6Escobar tripled to center, Ohtani scored and Renfroe scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Renfroe grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rengifo scored, Cron out at second, Ohtani to third.2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 4Olson homered to right (374 feet).1–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Riley homered to left center (426 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second.1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 4Harris II singled to left, Rosario scored and Arcia scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Renfroe singled to left, Cron scored, Grichuk to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- LAA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.1 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −15 | LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 36–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.