Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to center (399 feet).9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 8Suárez singled to center, Rodríguez scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 5Moniak homered to center (421 feet), Moustakas scored.7–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 4Rodríguez homered to right center (405 feet), Crawford scored.7–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 3Moustakas homered to right (389 feet), Ohtani scored and Cron scored.5–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 3Cron singled to right, Rengifo scored, Ohtani to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 2Moore homered to left center (426 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Rengifo homered to right (415 feet).4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1France homered to center (403 feet), Murphy scored and Hernández scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Murphy reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- SEA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 29–2414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.