Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cade MarloweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marlowe homered to right center (405 feet), Raleigh scored, Caballero scored and Canzone scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Ohtani homered to right center (390 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Moustakas doubled to right, Cron scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Cron singled to center, Ohtani scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Suárez homered to right (376 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +22 Elo | LAA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 29–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.