San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thaiss hit sacrifice fly to center, Renfroe scored, Moniak to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 8Flores homered to left center (409 feet), Bailey scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to right, Drury scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Drury homered to right center (370 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Flores singled to center, Matos scored and Wade Jr. scored, Pederson to second.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pederson reached on infield single to third, Crawford scored, Wade Jr. to second, Matos to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Renfroe doubled to center, Moustakas scored on error and Drury scored, Renfroe safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Estrada.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Moustakas singled to right, Ohtani scored, Drury to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Ohtani singled to center, Rengifo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Fair odds
- LAA -103
- SF +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −11 | SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +17 Elo | SF 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 29–2819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.