Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-1
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada grounded out to third, Ramos scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Garver homered to left center (433 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Lowe homered to right (386 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 33–247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.